Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

The market sentiment has flipped back to greed. Long-term Bitcoin holders are once again accumulating BTC after a period of substantial distribution. Based on historical evidence, periods of accumulation by long-term holders have typically been followed by significant price increases. Over the last three months, the supply of ETH has increased by approximately 150,000 ETH. If this trend continues with an increase of around 60,000 ETH per month, then by December, the supply will return to its pre-merge levels. During this week, around $126 million worth of ETH was withdrawn from exchanges, indicating that investors are accumulating ETH ahead of the ETF launch.

Options Market

The exhaustion of Germany’s BTC liquidation and the hope for a  pro-crypto Trump government boosted the risk-on sentiment. The markets indeed saw a significant rebound after weeks of depressing prices. Implied volatility spiked as the market set ready to embrace more volatility. As a matter of fact, the volatility spread between BTC and ETH narrowed down to nearly flat at this juncture.Front-end skew flipped to favour calls with 8 vol premium. The upcoming ETH ETF launch on the 23rd could potentially trigger more volatility. Shorting gamma around the current spot price might be too risky but selling far out-of-money calls with a potential exit target price  in mind could be something to consider. 

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• Scroll, the leading project in the ecosystem, announced its participation in the Scroll Canvas on-chain identity verification event. The total value locked (TVL) in its S3 activity has exceeded 200 million US dollars.

   

• According to Coinglass data, based on the current mainstream centralized exchange contract positions, if Bitcoin rises above $70,000, an estimated $1.522 billion in short positions will be liquidated. If Bitcoin falls to around $64,000, an estimated $1.382 billion in long positions will be liquidated.

   

• According to official information from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, the platform has confirmed that five Ethereum spot ETFs from VanEck, Invesco, Fidelity, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton will begin trading on July 23rd.

   

• On July 19th, according to market reports, Binance has obtained court approval to deposit customer statutory funds into US Treasury bonds.

   

• Chainbase, a blockchain data network, has completed a Series A financing round of $15 million. Chainbase stated that Tencent Investment Group and Matrix Partners China jointly led this round of financing. Other investors include DFG, Folius Ventures, Hash Global, JSquare, Mask Network, and Bodl Ventures.

   

• The TON Foundation has announced the launch of the TON Teleport, an ecological infrastructure project that allows users to transfer BTC between the Bitcoin blockchain and TON without relying on central authorities.

   

• On July 16th, according to the Worldcoin Foundation, Tools for Humanity, allocated to Worldcoin contributors, the unlocking schedule for 80% of the WLD tokens held by team members and investors will be extended from 3 years to 5 years.

   

• Liquidium, the Bitcoin-based lending platform on Ordinals, announced on X platform that it has completed a $2.75 million seed financing round with participation from Wise3Ventures, PortalVentures, goasymmetric, cmsholdings, and others.

Marco

On Tuesday, Trump announced that JD Vance would be his running mate. Vance has a personal account with over $100,000 worth of BTC. The prediction markets had given Trump an 80% chance of winning, suggesting that the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies in the US could be changing. Trump has previously expressed a desire for a weaker US dollar, which he believes is responsible for the country's trade imbalances and the decline of its industrial sector. Since the USD is used as the denominator in the most commonly quoted BTC pair, a drop in the USD's value can increase the ratio's value, all else being equal.